Downfield Forecast

Fantasy football Probabilistic projections

Every projection is a range, not a number.

Downfield Forecast projects every NFL player as a full distribution — floor, median and ceiling — so you can see the shape of a start/sit call instead of a single number that hides it.

We are built for the leagues other tools shrug at: dynasty and keeper leagues that look seasons ahead, IDP leagues that start individual defenders, and leagues with unusual scoring. For every player we cover, that means a range for the rest of this season and for each of the next three, and we publish how those ranges tested against real seasons.

Go to the app

Downfield Forecast runs at app.downfieldforecast.com. You can browse an example week’s projections there with no signup required; your league and your subscription need an account.

One player, one week Illustrative
Floor Median Ceiling 8.7 14.2 21.3
The shaded band is the bulk of the outcomes; the tails on either side are the weeks that decide a season. A projection of “14.2” tells you nothing about whether this player can win you the week — the spread does.

Ranges, not guesses

Floor and ceiling come from calibrated prediction intervals — and we publish how often those intervals actually contain what happened.

Your league’s exact rules

Full-PPR, TE premium, points per first down, yardage milestones, multi-TD and stacking bonuses — every projection is re-scored under your scoring, including the rules other tools round off.

Dynasty, keeper and IDP

Season-ahead boards at seven positions — QB, RB, WR and TE and the individual defenders (DL, LB and DB) — each horizon tested on past seasons, with the results published, misses included.

Lineup calls, triaged

Most weeks hold five obvious starts and two real decisions. We flag which is which — and how often the alternative outscores your starter across simulated outcomes.

Judge the record, not the pitch

Every projection service says it’s accurate. We show it: interval coverage, error by stat, and where we ran hot or cold — measured on real outcomes and published on a public page. When we miss, you’ll see that too.

$19.99 / year Founding price: $19.99 a year. Subscribe by May 31, 2027 and that price is locked in for as long as you keep renewing. One plan, everything included — every position, and your league’s own scoring rules rather than a generic preset. No tiers, no upsells. Cancel anytime; access runs through your paid term. Cheap on purpose: we would rather earn five renewals than squeeze one season.

Go to the app