Downfield Forecast

Fantasy football Probabilistic projections

Every projection is a range, not a number.

Downfield Forecast projects every NFL player as a full distribution — floor, median and ceiling — so you can see the shape of a start/sit call instead of a single number that hides it.

Go to the app

Downfield Forecast runs at app.downfieldforecast.com. You can browse an example week’s projections there with no signup required; your league and your subscription need an account.

One player, one week Illustrative
Floor Median Ceiling 8.7 14.2 21.3
The shaded band is the bulk of the outcomes; the tails on either side are the weeks that decide a season. A projection of “14.2” tells you nothing about whether this player can win you the week — the spread does.

Ranges, not guesses

Floor and ceiling come from calibrated prediction intervals — and we publish how often those intervals actually contain what happened.

Your league’s exact rules

Full-PPR, TE premium, points per first down, yardage milestones, multi-TD and stacking bonuses — every projection is re-scored under your scoring, including the rules other tools round off.

Lineup calls, triaged

Most weeks hold five obvious starts and two real decisions. We flag which is which — and how often the alternative outscores your starter across simulated outcomes.

Judge the record, not the pitch

Every projection service says it’s accurate. We show it: interval coverage, error by stat, and where we ran hot or cold — measured on real outcomes and published on a public page. When we miss, you’ll see that too.

$19.99 / year One plan, everything included — every position, and your league’s own scoring rules rather than a generic preset. No tiers, no upsells. Cancel anytime; access runs through your paid term. Cheap on purpose: we would rather earn five renewals than squeeze one season.

Go to the app